Macro Dashboard
Categories: Macroeconomics, Market Indicators, Quantitative Analysis
Note: The following analytics breakdown is intended solely for informational and quantitative research purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This dashboard aggregates critical macroeconomic indicators utilized by quantitative investors to gauge market health, valuation expansion, and systematic risk prior to the opening bell.
1. Global Buffett Indicators
We begin with the Buffett Indicator, representing total equity market capitalization divided by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Select a region below to generate the corresponding historical valuation chart.
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For a full explanation on how our metrics are structured, read the Buffett indicator page.
Understanding the Buffett Indicator & Portfolio Management
The Buffett Indicator compares total equity market valuation against the real economy (GDP). When historical ratios stretch significantly above the baseline, equities carry higher systemic risk and reduced forward return expectations. When depressed, they represent undervalued accumulation zones.
Practical Application: Capital allocators use these extremes to manage leverage and risk. In severely overvalued regimes, it may be prudent to deleverage (e.g., paying back Lombard loans or margin) to protect against downside margin calls, or to rebalance outsized equity holdings into fixed-income safe havens and cash equivalents until valuations revert to the mean.
2. Cross-Asset Volatility
After evaluating baseline valuations, we measure implied and realized risk by gauging the volatility across critical market foundations. To overlay your own custom tickers rather than the key benchmark assets below, visit the Overlay tool .
Tickers utilized in this overlay:
• T-IEUR: iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF
• T-SPY: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
• T-TLT: ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF
• T-VT: VANGUARD TOTAL WORLD STOCK INDEX FUND ETF SHARES
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Interpreting Volatility & Market Cycles
- Overpriced + High Volatility: Frequently signals topping distributions or incoming crashes as uncertainty shatters leveraged positions.
- Underpriced + High Volatility: Often indicates capitulation. Panic selling creates volume spikes, usually forming durable macro bottoms.
- Upward Trend + Low Volatility: A reinforced, healthy bull market. Steady accumulation without panic.
- Downward Trend + Low Volatility: A "bleeding" market. A slow, agonizing grind lower lacking the sudden volume flush needed to reset valuations.
3. European One-Year Interest Rates
The chart below displays the European 1-year interest rates published monthly by Eurostat (a value of 5 indicates a 5% annualized rate). Data points are linearly interpolated between monthly releases and extrapolated forward for 60 days to fill the most recent reporting gaps. Trending interest rates act as gravity on stock valuations, directly influencing corporate borrowing costs and discount rates.
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4. European Real Interest Rates
The nominal rate alone doesn't dictate restrictive policy. By subtracting the European Index for Consumer prices (EA20) from the nominal interest rates above, we extract the Real Interest Rate. Sustained positive real rates tighten liquidity, whereas negative real rates incentivize borrowing and asset inflation.
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Explore Further Diagnostics
Continue your macroeconomic analysis with different visualizations and their suggestions of macro analysis charts: